Value Tree Paper

Value Tree Paper

Table of Contents

A value tree diagram is a pictorial representation that decision makers use when making decisions. It’s one of the common decision making tools that provide several situations of the uncertainty where an individual may choose one from. The tree value representation gives alternatives to the decisions and its respective probabilities. Apart from probabilities, the representation pictorial gives benefits and losses that an individual may get from a given outcome. The value tree provides a step by step procedure that an individual may use in reaching a decision. On the same, the vale tree may highlight some of the costs that an individual may incur in the process of using an alternative decision towards a situation. Value tree decision making tool has become a fundamental system that identifies objectives in a given situation plus the strategy that an individual may use in realizing set goals and objectives, (Monahan, 2008).

Probabilities, goals, measures such as costs, and objectives are the key elements that make up a value tree diagram. Objectives are things that a given decision made wish to realize at the end. They are the best things that gears the decision making process. Goal is part of objectives expected in the long run but should be well defined and have a given level. Measures are standards developed in order to measure goal level towards a given objective. Finally, probabilities can be defined as the chances of given outcomes that may be realized given certain choices were made in the process. Evidence suggests that probabilities and measures help in decision making process because they determine the best alternative. They are used to determine the weight value of possible alternatives hence determine the best among those selected, (Selart & Allwood, 2011).

Developing a college decision may be based on different aspects. In this case, various objectives and goals such as cost and quality of education in college were the main aspects used to select the college to join. In selecting my college of choice, scholarship probability played a vital role simply because of cost reduction of getting an education in any of the college. According to my decision, the objective was selecting the college that would offer the best education at a substantial price compared to the other. The goal was to get the college whose cost per semester was lower plus the transport cost. Probability of getting scholarship that would cut learning cost was another vital aspect during decision making of the best college, (Monahan, 2008).

In the first place, getting enrolled in either of the college was equal but the probability of having quality education was slightly different. For college, A, the probability was 0.6 while that of B it was 0.7. The transport cost of joining college A was $100 while the transport cost of college B was $80. Tuition fee for college stood at $100, and that of college B was at $ 90 something that played a major role in determining the college of choice. Getting a full scholarship at college A was at 0.4 but in college B was at 0.6. A full scholarship would reduce tuition fee meaning that the entire cost would reduce. In a thorough analysis of the above information, college B was the best simply because it offered quality education at a lower cost compared to college A, (Clemen, 2010).

Reference:

Clemen, R. T. (2010). Making Hard Decision. An Introduction to Decision Analysis. Duxbury press

Monahan, G. (2008). Management Decision Making. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press

Selart, M. & Allwood, C. M. (2011). Decision Making: Social and Creative Dimensions: Springer

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