The crash of Delta Air Lines Flight 191

Introduction

Aviation accident indicate that majority of aircrafts mishaps are due to errors in judgment. It is important for pilots and aircraft controllers to develop techniques and material that will improve the decisions making of the pilots. Training programs using prototype versions have demonstrated substantial reductions of pilot errors rate in the recent past decades.

The delta airline crash of August 2, 1985

Delta Airlines Flight 191 served from Fort-Lauderdale-Hollywood Airport. The plain was bound for Los Angeles International Airport in California by way of Dallas-Fort Worth International Airport. Delta Air lines Flight crashed in the afternoon of August 2, 1985 while on routine approach to Dallas-Fort Worth International airport. 126 out of 152 passengers were killed including 8 crew members out of 11 on board. One person on the ground was killed. This is one of the few commercial air crash in which microburst which is a meteorological phenomena induced by wind shear was the direct factor of contribution to this air crash.The aircraft was N726DA, a Lockheed L-1011-385-1 Tri-Star, which was one of Delta fleet.

This aircraft at the time of the crash was being piloted by Captain Edward Conner, Second Officer Nick Nassick and First officer Rudolph Price(Magnuson, 2005). There was thunderstorm as the aircraft flew over Louisiana which forms directly in its path. Heading over the planned destination route, the aircraft began its descending procedures on the Louisiana skies . Captain Connors had recognized the thunderstorm that was forming and decided to change the plane to avoid the turbulent weather. At Dallas -Fort Worth International airport there was an isolated thunderstorm with a generally poor weather. Noticing this, the copilot and the captain preceded through it resulting to the aircraft being caught up in a microburst.At 800 feet above the ground, the airspeed increased without any intervention from the crew. The first officer had motioned to captain Connors that he had seen lightening in one of the clouds ahead of them.

The aircraft was supposed to land at 276 km/h speed but instead the airspeed increased to 320 km/h . This speed was due to wind shear which Prince tried to stabilize the aircraft speed but failed. Suddenly the speed reduced from 320 to 246 km/h then the speed further dropped to 220 km/ h . Price pushed the throttles forward to give the aircraft a temporary lift. The aircraft also experienced a downdraft more than 30 feet per second in addition to sudden tail wind. This downdraft reversed itself severally before the final crush of the airplane.a lengthy investigation the National Transports Safety Board deleted that then accident was caused by a combination of extreme weather phenomena associated with microburst wind shear and pilot error. The accident was caused by the inability of the radar equipment to detect wind changes and the microburst. It only detected thunderstorms. As a results of the airborne wind shears alert a diction system was installed on many commercial airlines of the United States.

Aeronautical decision making and judgment

Decisions making is characterized as an act of choosing between alternatives under an uncertain condition (Tsang, Vidulich, p 203). This is an important concept in aeronautical decision making because wrong decisions making can lead to a crash. The Delta Air Lines Flight 191 at Dallas Fort Worth Texas raises concerns about the crew decisions making in the landing in the midst of severe thunderstorm. This flight penetrated over heavy storm despite Prince noticing the lightening in one of the cloud ahead of them. The wind shear caused the high speed and its fluctuation by -44Kts + 20Kts.

The severe turbulence and heavy rain caused the aircraft to strike the ground killing most on board and one on the ground. We can say that the probable cause of the crash to be real time shear hazard information and the decisions of the flight crews to continue the approach into a cumulonimbus cloud with lightening and to initiate a rapid change of direction.Decision making of the pilot had been paid much attention by the National Transportation safety Board reports. A pilot must acquire and seek information from any sources that is available within his reach. The pilot has to make any determination in regard to the quality and quantity of information and with enough information, the pilot will be at a good position to make reasonable and reliable decisions. This is through personal processing of data by the pilot in predetermining the ways of getting and reaching a wise decisions from the few alternatives he has.

This process of reaching a wide discussion involves the judgment of the pilot on probabilities in an attempt to come to a wise decision when faced with certainty. The decision making of a pilot must reflect on normative characterization which the most essential task of a pilot is to choose the best option available for him having in mind the possible outcomes attached to each choice. Therefore, the essential and most vigilant aeronautical decision maker is prone to error. This is seen in the field of aeronautical decisions making which was founded by Holland and Wickens in 2000. The correct decisions has been derived from a normative analysis of a situation and the incorrect decision is based on the process of Heuristic. The pilots in delta airline followed the heuristic approach rather than the normative approach leading to largely incorrect decisions. To enable pilots have the tactics of using the normative approach in decision making they have to follow available the model which outlines the consequence of information processing activity.

This process first begins with cue sampling through the assessment of the situation. The second step is to generate options. This will, require the EDM to be creative and fast in thinking. The third option is to wisely make a decision which will automatically be followed by an action.The uses of heuristic processes are presumed to affect particular stages in the decisions making process. For example, at the point where a decision is formulated , there will, be the operation of framing which will subsequently affect the confirmation bias of cue sampling.This is the point at which the pilots have to be very careful in their decision making process. They have to choose between several options and the expected utility of an option. Expected utility is derived from considering the options in multiplying and turning the values of each potential outcome by the likelihood of occurrence.Generally a pilot has to avoid stress when faced with a critical situation that requires an immediate decision. This is because stress has been found to reduce both decision confidence and optimality.

Conclusion

People including the pilots have difficulty in making judgments especially under situation of uncertainty. This is because of the faulty decisions that we take when processing the necessary data. To solve such problems, people have to be trained on how to use the available alternatives and to follow the correct routines in processing information although few such studies are available.

Reference

Magnuson, 2005, Like a Wall of Napalm. Retrieved from

http://www.time.com/time/magazine/article/0,9171,1050423-2,00.html

On June 9, 2010

Tsang, P & Vidulich, M (2002) Principles and practice of aviation psychology Rutledge publishers.

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